Corn Market Commentary for 8-24-10
December corn posted a sharp loss on the day, which took the contract to its lowest level since August 12th. The market pulled back from its lows into the close, but it still managed to settle at its lowest level since August 6th. Traders said that lower crude oil helped to pressure the market today, along with selling in an array of commodity and equity markets that was based on renewed concern over the pace of the economy in the US. The weakening economic outlook has some traders and analysts concerned because the majority of US corn demand comes from ethanol and feed usage in the US, which could be adversely affected by a slowing economy and/or lower crude oil. One analyst notes that the recent rally has been sparked in large part by export demand, which constitutes 2.05 billion bushels of projected usage in 2010/11. In contrast, ethanol and domestic feed usage are expected to account for 10.05 billion bushels in 2010/11. An Israeli firm is tendering for 34,000 tonnes of US corn products, up to 24,000 tonnes of it US, and 7,000 tonnes of meal, according to European traders. The Canadian Wheat Board is projecting increased demand for feed barley this year to replace lost feed wheat and barley from the Black Sea region.
September Corn finished down 12 at 405 1/4, 5 1/2 up from the low and 10 3/4 off the high. December Corn settled 12 1/4 lower at 420 1/2. This was 5 1/4 up from the low and 11 off the high.
November Rice closed 0.1 lower at 11.525, 0.115 off the high and 0.085 up from the low.
Wheat Market Recap Report for 8-24-10
September Wheat ended down 17 1/2 at 674 3/4, 6 1/2 up from the low and 18 1/4 off the high. December Wheat settled down 17 3/4 at 707 3/4. This was 6 1/4 up from the low and 18 1/2 off the high.
December wheat moved lower early in the overnight session and then made new lows to kickoff the day session, and again in late morning before pulling back from the lows into early afternoon. Traders said that the selling started with a higher dollar and improved moisture levels in Russia ahead of the winter wheat planting season there. Weak economic housing data in the US also helped to pressure the market, and prices stayed lower even after the dollar sold off to lower levels prior to the start of the day session. Unwelcome rains continue in Germany into the harvest season. Germany suffered intense heat and some drought this summer which reduced yields and harvest season rains are expected to reduce quality. Germany is the second largest wheat producer in the EU after France and it is a major exporter. Buyers in the Middle East and North Africa have been turning to France and Germany in recent weeks to replace wheat from the Black Sea. Some analysts are calling for a reduction of more than 5.5 million tonnes in German production from last year’s 49.7 million tonnes.
December Oats closed 10 1/2 lower at 274 1/2. This was 10 3/4 off the high and 1 up from the low.
Soybean Complex Market Review for 8-24-10
November Soybeans finished down 6 1/2 at 999, 9 1/4 off the high and 5 1/4 up from the low.
December Soybean Oil finished 0.24 higher at 40.06, 0.56 up from the low and 0.09 off the high.
December Soymeal closed down 5.2 at 289.7. This was 0.7 up from the low and 5.5 off the high.
November soybeans sold off today in the middle of widespread selling in commodity and equity markets. In doing so, the November contract took out the previous day’s lows for the 7th straight session. However, the low for the day came at the start of the day session, and soybeans trimmed their losses into mid session before settling well off their lows. Meal led the complex lower, posting a series of new lows over the course of the overnight and day sessions before ending near its lows for the day in the December contract. Soy oil managed to post a gain on the day despite a substantial sell off in crude oil, and traders credited this in part to support from spreading versus meal. Today’s action followed an unexpected 2% drop in the good-to-excellent rating for the US soybean crop on yesterday’s Crop Progress report from the USDA. The weather outlook in the US is mostly dry and cooler this week, which is welcome in the west. Growing areas in the SE could use more rain. Growing areas in NE China are expected to see heavy and unwelcome rains over the next 10 days with cool temperatures and limited sunshine.
November soybeans sold off today amid widespread selling in commodity and equity markets. In doing so, the November contract took out the prior day’s lows for the 7th straight session. However, the low for the day came at the start of the day session, and soybeans trimmed their losses into mid session before closing well off their lows. Meal led the complex lower, posting a series of new lows over the course of the overnight and day sessions before closing near its lows for the day in the December contract. Soy oil managed to post a gain on the day despite a substantial sell off in crude oil, and traders credited this in part to support from spreading versus meal. Today’s action followed an unexpected 2% drop in the good-to-excellent rating for the US soybean crop on yesterday’s Crop Progress report from the USDA. The weather outlook in the US is mostly dry and cooler this week, which is welcome in the west. Growing areas in the SE could use more rain. Growing areas in NE China are expected to see heavy and unwelcome rains over the next 10 days with cool temperatures and limited sunshine.
November Soybeans finished 6 1/2 lower at 999, 5 1/4 up from the low and 9 1/4 off the high.
December Soymeal settled 5.2 lower at 289.7. This was 0.7 up from the low and 5.5 off the high.
December Soybean Oil ended up 0.24 at 40.06, 0.56 up from the low and 0.09 off the high.
After reading today’s commentary,traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum. The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports. Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it. In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much. Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices. Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.
This blog is reported by Andy Waldock. Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, analyst, broker, asset manager and traderfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio. Therefore, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his clients, or his family in any commodity future market discussed. The blog is meant to develop a discussion and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets employ a high degree of leverage and commodity trading may not be suitable for all investors. Investing in the commodity futures could result in substantial risk. If you are interested in reading other circulated articles, commenting on his writings or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.
The daily commentaries provide a rundown of any reports released that day, a recap of each commodity’s traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, and a look ahead at the schedule for the next day. CME Group provides market commentaries for corn, wheat, soybeans, gold and silver. The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.